If you held some cryptocurrencies during the market downturn, the biggest significance of a bull market is that it allows your limited assets to gain in value.
If you are a Bitcoin believer, the biggest significance of a bull market is to prove that your faith is correct and that your foresight from a few years ago was valid. But that’s about it if you didn’t invest a lot of money back then.
Many people now regret not buying more Bitcoin at 38K when they see it at 70K. But a year ago, would you have dared to buy Bitcoin at 38K? Probably not. Who knew how much lower it could go at that time? If I told you Bitcoin would rise to 200K in a year, would you dare to buy it now? Still, probably not. It’s simple; no one can predict the future. Only in hindsight does everyone look like a stock market genius.
Recently, Bitcoin has trended on Weibo twice. People start paying attention when prices rise. I’ve also watched ETH drop from 3400 to 1800 and then climb back to 4000. But really, what kind of change does such volatility bring? Turning 10K into 20K? It doesn’t seem to mean much.
Bull markets are often accompanied by many get-rich-quick stories. In my understanding, there are several ways to make money:
Trading, holding spot, and value investing. This is relatively stable with controlled risks but limited returns. How much you dare to invest depends on how much investable funds you have. Don’t be fooled by whales making millions; their actual assets are at least five times more than their investments. Similarly, the returns for ordinary people are limited. Betting your house on Bitcoin is gambling. Usually, people who make and lose a lot of money do so in a cycle. Only a few can stop at the right time, and those who can already have self-control beyond human nature.
Leveraging contracts. This type of trading should be done with small amounts, like 10 or 20 bucks for fun. If you want to make money, don’t touch it. You could lose all your money and not get it back. Market makers can do it if they can control the market, but that’s not for ordinary people.
Issuing meme coins. Jumping on the current trend, anything hot can be turned into a coin: AI coin for new AI tech, ROCKET coin if Musk tweets a rocket photo. There will always be players who buy for the hype. This method relies heavily on luck. Additionally, you need some operational and technical skills, like setting up trading pools and promoting on social media, along with some graphic design skills to create a decent logo.
Even if it’s not a meme coin, issuing a low-quality token can make money as long as people are willing to play and buy it. However, this requires some costs for technology, graphics, and operations. Many get-rich-quick stories stem from such coins. I’ve seen people succeed with this, but I don’t envy them because I know I can’t make that kind of money.
Phishing websites. This is outright illegal and requires hacking skills and experience, so it’s not an option.
Airdrop hunting. Now, airdrop hunters have turned it into a small industry, participating in early projects on a large scale. This is highly random and requires luck. Many people spent money on transaction fees and ended up with nothing. Moreover, it’s about the return on investment. Some airdrop hunters make millions on a single project, but they must have substantial assets to invest. Given the opportunity, most people wouldn’t have enough money to capitalize on it. I don’t engage much in airdrop projects, perhaps due to a lack of information.
DeFi. Earning yields by staking funds on platforms to earn interest. This carries the risk of the project rug-pulling, so you need to choose reliable projects.
MEV (Miner Extractable Value). This multi-billion-dollar market is already targeted by experienced players, and making money from it might require competing on speed.
Developing a technically demanding project and being a core developer, receiving initial token allocations and waiting for their value to multiply. This method is safer but rare, especially in the current market where few dare to start new developments. Most projects are integrations of existing technologies. Projects with significant contributions in specific technical directions are not only rare but also have high technical barriers, which are beyond the reach of ordinary people.
Regular work, steady job. Working in a crypto exchange is not much different from working in an internet company, with the main differences being the non-traditional office environment and getting paid in tokens.
Mining. Mining might not be profitable anymore.
There are two types of bull markets: one driven by favorable policies leading to price increases, and another driven by new technologies attracting more players. The current bull market is the former. Besides crazy prices, no significant new technologies or phenomena have emerged. Apart from price changes, nothing else seems to have changed. Or, you could say, we’re still in the early stages of the bull market, and those who dare should quickly invest more :P
Another point is that a bull market attracts more capital, leading to more new projects and companies, possibly creating more job opportunities. Lately, some small, obscure companies have appeared, suggesting the job market might be slightly improving. However, these small companies likely work on the usual types of projects…working anywhere is the same. For those facing layoffs, the job market might feel a bit easier.
For the average person, the current bull market doesn’t seem to mean much. Tonight, Ethereum completed the Cancun upgrade, and it’s unclear if this will trigger another Layer 2 boom. I’m not much of an Ethereum believer; Layer 2 feels incomplete to me, and Ethereum now focuses on Layer 2 development. Similarly, some companies are working on Bitcoin Layer 2 projects, which I’m also not optimistic about. Bitcoin Core isn’t interested in scaling and could make BRC-20 projects disappear entirely.
So, should we believe in Bitcoin? It seems Bitcoin doesn’t relate much to the average person either. I hope a project representing faith will emerge.